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Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).
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On the surface, Week 1 appeared exceptionally bettor-friendly, as Casino.org reported.
According to LSR, NFL teams combined for 791 points—tying 2012 for the highest opening-week total ever—while setting Week 1 records for total touchdowns (93), offensive touchdowns (90), and rushing touchdowns (37). Favorites went 12-4 straight up, while the Over hit in nine of 16 games (9-6-1).
At Caesars Sportsbook, seven of eight early afternoon favorites won outright, and six games went Over the total—many hitting the mark by halftime.
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“It would be crazy to say that these cases are positive for the industry,” he says. “They will no doubt continue, but as an industry we need to try to reduce their frequency.”
Enforcement publicity may lack context, and some settlements may involve errors rather than systemic recklessness. But the sector cannot control how its opponents use these cases. It can only reduce the supply.
At a moment when the industry needs to persuade politicians that regulated gambling is capable of managing risk responsibly, repeated failures in long-established areas such as AML and safer gambling amount to political self-harm.
